CO2 targets - is the car industry crying wolf? by Jay Nagley

There is currently huge controversy over the proposed EU limit of 130 g/km of CO2 (gpk) for car emissions by 2012. Many car manufacturers, particularly German luxury car makers, are saying that this will decimate the industry in Europe as the only way to meet it will be to stop making high-performance models.

We decided to take a long hard look at this subject, and were surprised to find that the target is achievable. How do we know? Because if all the model ranges in each class came up to the level of the best ones, we would be nearly at the target right now. First, a bit of background. Currently, the average CO2 output of cars sold in the UK is 166 gpk. Obviously the average varies by type of car - luxury cars have a much higher average than city cars, so we calculated both the average CO2 figure for all classes of car currently on sale, and the average for the most efficient model range in each class. The calculation shows that if all model ranges were brought up to the level of the most efficient, the average would drop to 140.8 gpk. According to figures from BMW, the adoption of currently available technology, such as automatically switching off engines at traffic lights and alternators driven by brakes rather than engines (both standard on the 2008 Mini), will lead to a further drop of between 7% and 12% in CO2 output - enough to get to the EU target of 130 gpk.

There is no reason why manufacturers cannot follow best practice. If for example, the Toyota Aygo, Peugeot 107 and Citroen C1 can all manage an average of 109 gpk, why do some model ranges of the same size have an average figure of up to 149 gpk? At the other extreme, if the Ford Galaxy range has an average of 171 gpk, why do some MPVs have a figure of well over 200 gpk?

Average CO2 output by class of car

Best performing model ranges in each class

* To give the car manufacturers the best possible chance, we even excluded the hybrid Toyota Prius from the calculation as it could be argued that not every car could (or even should) be turned into a hybrid within five years.

The point is that if a whole range can achieve a good figure, there is no reason why every equivalent range cannot achieve a similar figure. For example, the average for the BMW 5 Series took into account every version of the range, from the 523i through to the 500 bhp M5. Thus the figure was not skewed by one particular version that happened to have a good CO2 figure.

Oh, and in case you were wondering who the baddies are, here is the list of the worst model ranges in each segment. It is notable that two manufacturers have four models between them in this table. Subaru and Cadillac - where are those clean Euro-friendly diesel engines you have promised us?